Luck: The Invisible Hand in Business and Venture Capital

In life and in business, we often marvel at success stories and attribute them to “luck.” But is luck really random? Or is it something we can actively cultivate?

I’ve thought about luck extensively over the years. One of my favorite quotes is from Seneca, the Stoic philosopher:

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

I referenced this quote in a speech I gave at my brother’s wedding. you can find the written speach here: https://adiezbarroso.medium.com/la-suerte-sebastian-y-almudena-f3350108121c. At the time, I used it to highlight how relationships, like business ventures, don’t thrive purely by chance. They require effort, preparation, and awareness. Today, I’d like to expand on this idea within the context of venture capital and entrepreneurship, where luck plays an undeniably critical role — but one that can often be misunderstood.

The Role of Luck in Venture Capital

In venture capital, luck manifests in countless ways. You might meet the right founder at the right time, invest in a company right before its market explodes, or find yourself aligned with trends you couldn’t have predicted.

But as Seth Godin wisely puts it:

“Luck might not be a strategy, but setting yourself up to be lucky might be.”

In VC, this means fostering an environment where luck has the opportunity to strike. It means showing up in the right rooms, staying curious, and being prepared to act when the right opportunity presents itself.

The Four Types of Luck

Dr. James Austin, in his book Chase, Chance, & Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty, identified four types of luck, which provide a useful framework for understanding how luck interacts with effort and preparation:

1. Blind Luck

This is completely out of your control — the circumstances of your birth, random events, or sheer serendipity. In VC, this could be being in the right city at the right time or being introduced to someone by chance.

2. Luck from Motion

This is the luck you create by being in motion — through hustle, energy, and activity. By increasing your “luck surface area,” you maximize the chances of serendipitous opportunities. For example, attending conferences, building networks, and maintaining a constant flow of deal sourcing.

3. Luck from Awareness

This type of luck comes from expertise and a deep understanding of your domain. When you’ve seen enough patterns, you become skilled at spotting opportunities others might miss. In venture capital, this could be recognizing a nascent market trend or an exceptional founder before anyone else.

4. Luck from Uniqueness

Your unique qualities and positioning can attract luck to you. This is where being different — not just better — comes into play. For example, a VC fund with a niche focus or a founder with an unconventional background can draw opportunities others don’t have access to.

The Luck Razor: Maximizing Your Luck Surface Area

One of the most actionable takeaways about luck is to increase your luck surface area. This involves putting yourself in positions where luck is more likely to find you. It’s hard to get lucky watching Netflix at home, but it’s easier when you’re engaging with the world. Here are a few ways to expand your surface area:

• Network deliberately: Talk to people outside your usual circles.

• Be curious: Ask more questions and explore areas outside your expertise.

• Share your thoughts: Write blogs, speak at events, and make your ideas public.

• Experiment: Take calculated risks to uncover what works.

• Learn constantly: Surround yourself with smarter people and absorb their insights.

Luck in the Context of Venture Capital

In VC, “luck from motion” is showing up to 50 pitch meetings even if 49 lead nowhere. “Luck from awareness” is recognizing patterns after years of investing and advising founders. “Luck from uniqueness” is building a reputation for a specific focus — like being the go-to fund for a particular sector or geography.

The idea that “luck is made” resonates deeply here. VC firms often succeed not because they are inherently “lucky” but because they repeatedly do the hard work that positions them to capitalize on chance when it arises. This includes everything from rigorous due diligence to fostering relationships over years.

Conclusion: The VC Playbook for Luck

Venture capital is a game of uncertainty, but luck doesn’t have to be random. As Seneca and countless others have noted, preparation is the foundation of luck. If we focus on what we can control — building expertise, staying in motion, and maintaining curiosity — we increase the odds that fortune will favor us.

To paraphrase the wedding speech I gave:

“The success you build is not luck. It’s a deserved outcome of the effort, diligence, and preparation you put in.”

In business, as in life, luck will always play a role. But the truly successful don’t wait for it — they create it.